Insights
SOLVED: Why no one was home on Census night
Posted July 24, 2017
While there were over one million dwellings unoccupied on Census night, there does not appear to be a large pool of dwellings being withheld from the housing market. It appears that most dwellings that were unoccupied on Census night were unoccupied for a very valid reason. The two largest categories of unoccupied dwelling are Holiday homes or the Residents absent, which accounts for two-thirds of all unoccupied dwellings. Dwellings are more likely to be unoccupied in regional areas than in capital cities. This is the result of lower demand rather than housing being intentionally withheld from the housing market.
2016 Unoccupied Dwellings Estimation Assumptions
Using a set of assumptions and other data sources, a breakdown of different categories of unoccupied dwellings was developed for 2016. These assumptions and data sources are listed below.
- For Sale: Given roughly 5 per cent of properties are for sale, it has been assumed that 5 per cent of unoccupied dwellings will also be for sale.
- Rental (short and long term): The rental properties was estimated to be 110,000 based on an assessment of rental properties (both available via private agencies and Airbnb).
- Newly completed: From Building Activity Australia (ABS Cat. No. 8752.0), the average number of dwellings completed in the June - September quarters of 2016 was 55,000.
- Repairs and alterations/awaiting demolition: Based on the average percentage from the 1981 and 1986 Census data.
- Holiday homes: The 1986 Census number of holiday homes was used as a starting point, and the overall dwelling growth rate was applied to produce the 2016 estimate.
- Resident absent: Based on the number of people collected in the Census as not being at their usual address. The average number of people resident (1.8) in Lone person and Couple Only households was then used to convert the number of people into households. (The assumption here being that families would be less likely to be travelling on Census night). This was then increased by 10 per cent to account for people who were travelling internationally on Census night.
- Other: The residual number of unoccupied dwellings were then assigned to the Other category.