Projects

Aboriginal Housing Modelling

ATSIC (the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Commission) required expert modelling and housing policy advice as inputs to the development of the ATSIC 10 year Strategic Plan for Indigenous Housing. This included modelling to forecast development of the indigenous housing sector under alternative policy and budget scenarios.

SGS was able to develop a model designed to test various funding scenarios including capital / recurrent funding splits. The main objective was to identify the optimal funding allocation that allows the portfolio to be adequately maintained, while at the same time expanding the portfolio. This was achieved with an 'optimiser function' built into the model. Key assumptions in the model were the depreciation rate of the houses and the rents collected. Policy scenarios tested included an emphasis on 'new builds' versus spreading funding resources more evenly.

Using the SGS model, ATSIC was able to test the implications for the future state of the portfolio under multiple scenarios. In carrying out the analysis, the need for supplementary interventions to address critical factors such as depreciation rates were identified. The analysis concluded that an over-emphasis on capital funding at the expense of maintenance is counter-productive and ultimately results in a contraction of the portfolio.